14
Calculating from the normal average death-rate during these months among
the community for some years previous to the plague epidemic, it appears that
one should expect 102 deaths from natural causes, hut as 184 deaths were actu-
ally recorded, it may fairly he assumed that the 82 extra deaths were due to
plague. Of these 82 plague deaths, 3 occurred in those inoculated between 27th
December 1897 and 20th April 18 8, 2 in those inoculated during the previous
epidemic, and 77 among the uninoculated. These details were carefully as-
certained by a house-to-house visitation conducted by Mr. Haffkine personally,
by examination of the burial hook at the Jamat Khana, and by the inoculation
documents in the Laboratory. The distribution of deaths in the two groups is
shown below.
Population.
deaths from plague.
Deaths from other causes.
Inoculated...
3,814
3
4
Not inoculated
9,516
77
94
Admitting that not more man 77 deaths among uninoculated were due
to plague, and supposing that the inoculated had remained after operation as
susceptible as before, they ought to have had proportionately 31 deaths from
plague instead of 3 only ; or a difference of 90.3 per cent. in favour of th
inoculated.
10. Hubli.-Plague appeared in this mercantile town of 50,000 inhabitants
in the end of 1897. It then disappeared for a time, only to break out once
more on the approach of the monsoon. " The average rainfall between April and
October amounts to more than 28 inches. Under these circumstances, although
a large and weather-proof health camp had been prepared for emergencies, com-
plete evacuation of the infected town-site was impossible, and the attempt to
effect it would have led to the severest hardships and to the immediate spread
of the disease into surrounding villages and districts." It was for this reason,
as Mr. Cappel, the Collector-whose words have just been quoted-remarks, that
inoculation was tried so extensively, being the only feasible measure under the
circumstances. As Mr. Cappel further remarks :-" Inoculation seems therefore
to be pre-eminently adapted for large towns and industrial places at all times,
and in the rains it is, so far as present experience shows, the only method of
staying the disease which can be relied on."
The enormous numbers inoculated, and the size of the town itself, precludes
any such great accuracy of figures as was attained in the small village of
Undhera, for instance, but still the following figures from Captain Leumann's
Report to Government may be taken as substantially correct. The inoculations
were begun on the 11th of May 1898, and between that time and 27th Septem-
ber, 38,712 persons were operated on :-

Dates.
Actual popula- tion of Hubli
as per weekly
consus.
Numbers not
inoculated.
Numbers
inoculated.
Plague
Deaths
among not inoculated.
Plague
Deaths
among inoculated.
11th May to
14th June
1898
Fell from
50,000 to
47,427
44,573
2,854
47
1
Week ending
21st June
47,082
41,494
5,588
22
3

28th
47,485
39,042
8,443
29
1

5th July
46,537
36,020
10,517
55
6

12th
46,518
33,255
13,263
34
6

19th
45,240
29,716
15,524
82
7

26th
43,809
24,112
19,697
100
15

2nd Aug
43,707
21,031
22,676
140
16

9th
42,768
15,584
27,184
272
19

16th
40,441
10,685
29,756
386
61

23rd
39,400
6,367
33,033
371
41

30th
38,210
4,094
34,116
328
28

6th Sept.
38,382
2,731
35,469
227
34

13th
38,408
1,116
37,292
138
46

20th
39,142
937
38,205
106
35

27th
39,315
603
38,712
58
20